Household Balance Sheet Suggests Downturn Has Run its Course

Issued by the Federal Reserve Bank September 17, 2010, as part of its Flow of Funds statement, the snapshot of the financial health of American families indicates the financial deterioration that started in early 2008, has slowed. However, certain dragging economic activities continue to leave the door open wide to possibilities of a double-dip recession occurring, before a sustained recovery gets underway.

That would be a hard dose for Americans to swallow, coming fast on the heels of the 11th complete business cycle since WW II. Official referees at the NBER say the contraction of number eleven lasted from December 2007 until June 2009, or 15 months, when it entered the recovery/expansion stage.

US Economy in the 15th Month of a So-So Recovery

Technically, the US has been in recovery in the new cycle for 15 months, without much to show for it. The average recovery since 1945 has lasted 59 months. Using historical comparisons, the US is one-fourth through the expansion stage of the new cycle.

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